Our read
The depth chart is where this case dies. Pierce, Downs and Keenan Allen sit ahead of him, and the crowded room alone costs him about a point a game by our projection. Last year he ran 21% of the snaps with a 4.8% target share, and the only red-zone note in his favor, nearly a quarter of his own touches coming there, is a ratio built on three total touches. Eight touches and 106 receiving yards all season, that is the whole 2025 body of work. Even the deep-ball trait is thinner than it looks, since those 15.8 yards a target only turned into 7.5 points in his best week.
The games question matters as much as the role. We expect 12 games from him, with 5 to 17 on the realistic ends, and he has missed real time in two of the last three seasons. When he did play in 2025, he cleared 15 points zero times in seven games. He beat the position's weekly median just twice in those seven starts. His one big trait, a 15.8-yard average depth of target, only pays if the deep shots come his way, and nothing in this offense suggests they will.
He is going around pick 317 for a reason. Our number has him at 31 points, last on our board by any measure worth citing, with four names left in his tier before the drop gets steep. I would leave him for the true dart-throw leagues, and even there I would rather take a rookie with an open path than a 29-year-old undrafted receiver behind three established targets.