Our read
The efficiency is real and it's the whole case. He beat the position's weekly median in 10 of 12 games last year, he averaged 10.5 a game, and his 571 yards were TE16 despite playing only 12 weeks. When Kincaid is on the field, he produces. The problem is what's on the field around him: a 37.6% snap share, TE71 among qualifying tight ends, and a target share that dropped from 20.2% to 14.6%. That's not a guy being force-fed, that's a guy cashing the few looks he gets at an average depth of 9.5 yards, TE8. New play caller Pete Carmichael Jr. is the swing factor drafters can't figure out yet, and it's part of why he's going a round later than he should.
Then the games. He played 12 in 2025 and 13 in 2024, both with missed weeks plus healthy weeks he didn't suit up for. Our 13-game expectation has a realistic range of 7 to 17. That variance is why our number sits at 118, only about 4 points above what tight ends drafted around pick 112 have actually delivered once the busts are pooled in. He's not offering points over replacement, he's offering a clean week-to-week producer if the 12-game version shows up 15 times.
The call: at ADP 112, he's fine. I wouldn't take him a round earlier and I wouldn't let him slip past 130. Draft him as your second tight end and hope the new offense widens that snap share, because the talent showed up last year even when the volume didn't.