Our read
He played all 17 games three seasons running, and that availability is the quiet engine of this case. We expect 14 games with a realistic span of 9 to 17, and even trimmed down he lands inside a middle range of 169 to 244 points. Our number puts him at 207, about 21 points better than what receivers drafted around pick 52 have historically produced, busts pooled in. So he is going a round or so later than he should.
Now the uncomfortable part. His points per game fell from 13.89 in 2024 to 9.92 in 2025, and his target share collapsed from 26.6% to 16.0%. That is not a small drift, that is a role change. He was still on the field for 84.8% of snaps, top-20 at the position, which tells you the staff never stopped trusting him. The touches just stopped coming, and the red-zone work dried up: 13 red-zone touches, a 13.0% share of his own touches, bottom half of the league. A touchdown load worth negative points a game caps how high this can go.
Buffalo is the swing. New head coach in Joe Brady, new play caller, a team the books posted at 10.5 wins, and a target room with Shakir and Coleman already in it. The depth chart lists him first, but that room is crowded and it costs him. My read: the 2025 usage dip is the risk you're drafting, and the Bills' passing volume is the reward. If the target share rebuilds even partway toward 2024, he beats this number comfortably. I'd draft him at his ADP and not a pick earlier, and I'd want to see week 1 targets before believing the bounce-back fully.