Our read
The depth chart tells you most of what you need here. Palmer is listed fourth among BUF receivers, behind DJ Moore, Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, and our projection docks him 0.9 points a game just for the crowded target room. That is the whole case against him in one number. When you're the fourth option on an offense the books expect to win 10.5 games, the passing volume mostly flows somewhere else.
His own recent play doesn't fight that read. He averaged 4.4 points a game across 12 contests last season, topped out at 11.1 in week 1, and cleared the position's weekly median just 4 times. He never reached 15 points in any week. His per-game scoring fell from 6.89 in 2024 to 4.36, and his target share sat at 10.8 percent. His snap share was 49.3 percent, and he caught just 6 red-zone touches all year. The availability story matters too: 10 games in 2023, 15 in 2024, 12 in 2025, so our expected 13 games with a range of 7 to 17 is a real question every season.
We project him for 65 points, WR109, and drafters are taking him around pick 303, where he's essentially a name on a list. There are only 2 players left in his tier before a 5.0-point drop, so if you want a dart there, fine. I'd rather let him go and take a late flier on someone with a clearer route to snaps.