Our read
Pitts finished last season TE2 and drafters are taking him around pick 78, late round 7. That gap is the whole case. He scored 211 points, sat one spot behind Trey McBride in points, touches and yards, and beat the position's weekly median in 14 of 17 games. He's our TE5 at rank 109, and the TEs drafted where he's going historically put up about 130 points. Our number has him at 150, twenty points clear of that. You're getting a top-five tight end a round or so later than he should go, in the stretch where managers grab their QB2.
The thing to understand is how he scored. His red-zone share of touches was 10.2%, TE88 among 126 qualifying tight ends, and he cleared 15 points in only 4 of 17 weeks. The points came from a 22.8% target share and 928 yards, not from touchdowns. That makes the new regime matter more for him than for almost anyone. Kevin Stefanski is a new head coach and Tommy Rees a new play caller. If they keep feeding him 88 touches, the TE2 repeat is live. If they reshape the offense, the path narrows.
The durability angle is clean. Three straight seasons of 17 of 17 games, no reserve-list stints, and he's 25.9 entering year six. The books posted him at 41.5 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions, modest lines for a guy who averaged 12.4 a game. I'd take him a round earlier than his ADP rather than wait, and if he's still sitting there a few picks after pick 78 in your room, that's a steal.