Our read
He has played all 17 games three seasons running, and last year he finished RB2 among 147 qualifying backs, a spot behind McCaffrey, with 366 touches and 820 receiving yards. The receiving jump is the real story: target share went from 13.4% in 2024 to 19.9%, and yards per touch climbed from 5.2 to 6.3. That's a back becoming a full every-down weapon, and it's why our number puts him at 261 points, RB2 on our board and about 20 points clear of the historical output of backs taken around pick 4. The reliability shows up week to week too: he scored above the position's weekly median in 16 of 17 games, cleared 15 points in 12 of them, and his best was 39.9 in week 17.
The one number that gives me pause is the scoring-range role. His red-zone share of his own touches was 12.3%, RB95 among 146 backs, even though he managed 48 red-zone touches overall. If the new staff steers goal-line work elsewhere, the path from 21.7 points a game back to this number runs through efficiency, not touchdowns he's guaranteed. And there is a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski with Tommy Rees calling plays, so the 78.5% snap share isn't a certainty until we see it.
Availability is the quiet strength here: the expectation is 15 games, with a range of 10 to 17, and the man has never missed a start. He's going around pick 4 and I'd take him there without blinking. If you're picking outside the top three and he slides, that's a gift.