Our read
Sixteen of seventeen weeks above the position's median last season. That's the whole case in one line, and it's why our number puts him at 262 points, RB1 on our board, even though our projection sits well under the 366.6 he actually scored in 2025. The gap is mostly games math. We expect 15 of them, with a realistic range of 9 to 17, and two straight 17-game seasons tell you the healthy version shows up most of the time.
The role is still stretching. His target share climbed from 12.1% in 2024 to 17.1% last year, third among 147 qualifying backs in receiving yards and one spot behind Bijan Robinson in both yards and overall scoring. Campbell and Morton are both back, so the setup doesn't change. One thing does hold him back, and it's the scoring distribution. His red-zone share of his own touches was just 19.9%, RB36 among 146, even though his 67 red-zone touches ranked third at the position. He gets into the scoring area plenty but splits the shortest finishes, and that's where his ceiling gets trimmed next to backs who own their goal line outright.
Drafters are taking him around pick 3, and the books have posted him at 83.5 rush yards, 4.5 receptions and 30.5 receiving yards a game, which reads like a back who wins through the air as much as on the ground. History says backs drafted there return about 242 points with busts pooled in, and our number sits 20 above that. That's a projection backed by production, not a leap. If you're picking at the top of 1.1, take him and move on. If Bijan is on the board instead, that's the only argument worth having.