Our read
Two years ago he was the TE1 in fantasy with 262.7 points across a full 17. Last year injuries took four games and he still ended TE11, beating the position's weekly median in 11 of his 12 starts at 14.5 points a game. The usage explains why: a 23.6% target share, second at the position behind only Trey McBride. He was on the field for 85.5% of the snaps, TE7 among qualifying tight ends, and his 66 touches ranked TE9. That workload is the case, and it survived a 3-win team and a coaching staff that is now entirely new under Klint Kubiak. He's 23.7 on opening day, entering his third season after going in the first round at pick 13.
The catch shows up inside the ten. Only 19.3% of his touches came in the red zone, TE45 among qualifying tight ends, and his 6.5-yard average depth of target ranks 41st. He gets fed short and often, which is steady but limits the monster weeks, that 43.3-point week 9 being the exception rather than a pattern. If the new staff pushes him closer to the goal line, the ceiling opens up. If not, he's a high-volume points machine.
Games are the real question. We expect 15 starts, with 10 to 17 the realistic spread, and his 2025 season effectively ended after week 16. Our number has him at 214 points, about 20 better than what TEs drafted around pick 20 have historically given. One player sits in his tier before a 48.4-point drop behind him. Drafters take him around pick 20 and that's fair. I'd grab him there without hesitating, because the replacement gap is real.