Our read
He cleared the weekly median in all 17 games last season and finished TE1 among 126 qualifying tight ends at 18.6 points a game, up from 15.2 the year before. That is a full leap in role, not a spike. Our number puts him at 215 points, about 20 over the historical return for TEs drafted around pick 21, and he is our TE1 at overall rank 49. The middle range runs 185 to 245, so most outcomes still make him worth a late second.
The wrinkle is how the points got there. He led all tight ends with 33 red-zone touches and 1,239 yards, but only 19.5% of his own touches came inside the 20, TE44 among 126. His average target sat 6.7 yards downfield, TE38. The scoring leaned on getting there often, and Arizona got there rarely in a 3-win season. If the new staff, Mike LaFleur as head coach and Nathaniel Hackett calling plays, runs fewer plays or stalls closer to midfield, the 18.6 a game has real room to slip.
Availability is the quiet strength. He played 17, 16 and 17 the last three years, and the sheet expects 15 with a range of 12 to 17. That reliability at tight end is worth a round on its own. The books posted 57.5 receiving yards and 6.5 catches on him this season, which reads like they expect the role to carry over. He is first on the depth chart, no injury designation on file, and the tier behind him drops off hard, 48.4 points before the next name. Draft him at his ADP. Waiting on him would cost you, because he is a steal at pick 21.