Our read
The depth chart is the story here. Kevin O'Connell still calls the plays and McCarthy is entering year three as a former top-10 pick, yet Minnesota listed Kyler Murray first on the September depth chart with Carson Wentz behind him. Until that flips, any points he gives you are borrowed. Our number has him at 56 points across an expected 6 games, with a realistic range of 0 to 14 appearances once injury risk is counted in. That is not a typo, that is two straight seasons wrecked by availability: 17 weeks missed in 2024, then 5 more missed in 2025 plus 2 healthy healthy scratches. Inside last season his snap share slid from 100% early to 79% late, so even when he was out there the hold on the job loosened. He got 11 touches all year, QB22 among 64 qualifying quarterbacks, and only 2 of them came in the red zone. Minnesota's own Vegas win total sits at 8.5, so the books think the team is fine without a hero under center.
When he did play last year, the production was thin. He topped the position's weekly median in 5 of 10 games, cleared 15 points only 4 times, and his best week was a 23.6 in week 15. Only 2 red-zone touches all season. Even the middle range for 2026 runs from 26 to 87 points, which is a wide gap between a lost season and a usable backup.
Drafters are taking him around pick 328, so he costs basically nothing. My call: skip him in one-quarterback leagues entirely, and in superflex he is only worth a last-round flier if you believe O'Connell turns back to him. I would rather gamble on upside elsewhere.