Our read
The usage is as heavy as it gets: a 32.3% target share and a 94.4% snap share, both top-three at the position, on an offense Zac Taylor calls himself and passes 63% of the time. Our number puts him at 333 points, WR2 on our board, and he is the last player in his tier before a 23.4-point cliff behind him. Last season he cleared the position's weekly median in 15 of 16 games and finished WR4 at 19.6 a game. The yardage backs that up: 1412 receiving yards, WR4 among 228 qualifying receivers, and a week 7 high of 38.1 points. The books posted him at 86.5 receiving yards and 7.5 receptions a game this season, their numbers, and his team's win total sits at 10.5.
The real downside is the scoring-range usage. His red-zone share of his own touches was 11.7%, WR106, even with 22 red-zone touches, and his points per game fell from 23.71 in 2024 to 19.6 last year. He scored fewer fantasy points while eating a bigger slice of the passing game, which is why our number sits well above the 296.5 that WRs drafted around pick 1 have pooled to lately. Inside the ten he had 8 touches, WR9 among 225, so the work near the goal line is there even if the share of his own touches looks thin.
I would still draft him at 1.4 without hesitating, because there is nobody in this tier close to him and a 333-point projection from a 26-year-old with no injury history of note is the safest pick on the board. If the touchdown efficiency never comes back, you still ride the volume.