Our read
The target share is the whole case. 30% of the Rams' targets, worth +10.1 a game in our model even after netting out seven factors, and he turns it into points because McVay still calls the plays and feeds him 139 touches, best at the position last year. Our number puts him at 344 points, WR1 overall, roughly 30 clear of what receivers drafted around pick 3 have historically given back even with the busts pooled in.
The worry is the games column, and it's real. He played 11 of 17 in 2024, six weeks missed, then bounced back with 16 of 17 last season. Our model expects 15 games with a range that bottoms at 10. That's the gap between a title-winning WR1 and a frustrating bye-week filler, and it's the one reason a drafter hesitates at pick 3. Worth noting his red-zone share of touches was just 10.2%, so a chunk of his scoring runs through yardage, but he scored over the position's weekly median in 15 of 16 weeks anyway, with a 46.5-bomb in week 16. And the books posted his receiving line at 90.5 yards and 7.5 catches a game, on a team they've put at 11.5 wins. He also saw 11 touches inside the ten last year, WR4 in the league, so the short scoring work is there even with that modest red-zone share.
The ADP has actually slipped, from 2.8 to 4.2 over ten days in September, and I don't get it. Two players remain in his tier before a 23.4-point cliff. I'd grab him at 3.3 and feel great about it.