Our read
Dart ran his way into the QB conversation as a rookie and the volume is why. 41 total touches, QB3 among 64 qualifiers, one spot behind Josh Allen, plus 18 red-zone touches and 10 inside the ten, also QB3. That's scoring-range usage you usually only see from the elite runner-quarterbacks, and it produced 240 points and a QB13 finish in 14 games on a team that won 4 games. He cleared 15 points in 10 of his 14 played weeks, and his best was a 28.42-point week 7. If the Giants are merely competent this year, that per-week number climbs.
Our number has him at 252, QB12 on our board, which is basically dead even with what quarterbacks drafted around pick 99 have historically delivered. So at ADP 98.5 you're not paying for hope, you're paying for the median outcome. The books posted his rush yards at just 29.5, which feels light given how much he ran last year. Their win total on the Giants sits at 7.5, and he gets CLE at home in week 15 and DAL in week 17 if you're thinking playoff pushes.
The real risk is games played. He missed weeks 11 and 12 as a rookie, our model expects 14 starts with a realistic range of 8 to 17, and the style that gets him those touches also gets him hit. New staff too, John Harbaugh running the show with Matt Nagy calling plays, and Jameis Winston behind him if anything goes sideways. I'd still take him at pick 99, even a round earlier in a superflex league, because the rushing usage makes his good weeks top-five weeks.