Our read
The fall is the whole note. Two seasons ago Jonnu Smith averaged 13.08 a game and finished TE4. Last year he averaged 5.01, his target share dropped from 19.5% to 10.4%, and he never once cleared 15 points in 17 weeks. He didn't miss a game to get there, either, so you can't wave it off as bad luck. The role shrank.
The move to Green Bay doesn't fix that on its own. He's listed second among GB tight ends behind Tucker Kraft, and Kraft isn't going anywhere. LaFleur calls the plays himself and the GB offense ran 51% situation-neutral passes last year, which sounds nice until you notice Smith's snap share slid from 58% early in 2025 to 38% late. The touch profile got shallow too: his average depth of target was 4.3 yards, TE83 among 125 qualifying tight ends. He saw 9 red-zone touches, TE25 among 126, but only 3 inside the ten, so the scoring chances were thin even where he did get fed. Thirty-one years old, tenth season, and the offense he's joining already has a tight end it trusts.
Our number puts him at 62 points, TE53 on our board, with most outcomes between 46 and 78. Drafters take him around pick 328, which is rounds after our number says he's worth a roster spot anyway. If you're drafting him at all it's as a third tight end in the deepest format in your league, and the bye-week plug at week 11 is about the ceiling of the job. I'd rather use the pick on a receiver with a path to actual targets.