Our read
A 15.8% target share in 2024 became 11.4% in 2025, and his scoring followed it down from 10.91 points a game to 4.11. That is the whole case in one line. He was WR102 in 2025 with one week over 15 points and a zero in week 5. He is 26.8, a former first-rounder, and listed second behind Zay Flowers, so the talent draft pick still carries some weight. But a new head coach in Jesse Minter and a new play caller in Declan Doyle mean no one owes him anything.
The crowded room costs him about 0.9 points a game, and there is real competition behind him in Ja'Kobi Lane and Devontez Walker. The one thing on his side is the team: the books posted 11.5 wins on Baltimore, so the offense should score. Red-zone usage was actually decent, WR29 in his own touches, and 8 red-zone touches despite the collapse.
Our number is 122 points, WR62, with the middle range 97 to 147. Drafters take him around pick 227, well after that, and past receivers in that spot scored about 112.6. So he is going later than he should, and our number still likes him a little. I would take him in the last rounds as a bench flier, but I would not count on him for anything before week 13's bye. If he shows anything early, he is a free add. If he opens like 2025, let him go.