Our read
Three straight years at WR3 and not a single game missed in either of the last two seasons. That's the whole case in one breath, and it's why our number puts him at 295 points, WR4 at the position, while drafters take him around pick 5. That ADP feels about right against a historical average near 258 for receivers drafted there. We project him 36.7 points above that, mostly because the usage keeps climbing. His target share went from 27.0% in 2024 to 31.3% last season, fourth among all receivers, and it's worth over 10 points a game on its own.
The role is short and steady. An 8.1-yard average depth of target ranks near the very bottom of the league, so he isn't winning you weeks on chunk plays. He's winning them on volume and finishing: 36 red-zone touches led the position, 21 inside the ten trailed only Davante Adams, and he beat the weekly median in 16 of 17 games. Week 15's 41.4 was the spike, but the base rate is the story.
The one crack in the wall: only 20.6% of his own touches come in the red zone, WR32 among qualifying receivers, so the touchdown upside leans on Detroit getting him the ball down there rather than on his own usage near the goal line. That's worth watching but not worth passing on. Campbell and Morton both return, he's listed first among Detroit's receivers, and the books posted his receiving line at 77.5 yards and 6.5 catches. Draft him at his ADP and move on.