Our read
The 2025 season is the whole argument against him, so start there. 200.9 points over 13 games, WR21 among 228 receivers, 15.4 a game, 76 total touches at WR18. Even in that down year he cleared the position's weekly median in 12 of 13 weeks and finished WR10 in receiving yards, which tells you the usage never left, only the touchdowns did. The red-zone profile is the real crack: just 14.4% of his touches inside the red zone, WR73, with only 17 red-zone touches. That is where 2023's 401.2-point, WR1 season came from, and it is the gap between WR5 and WR21.
The books posted his receiving line at 76.5 yards and 6.5 catches, and Dallas ran 56% situation-neutral passes at 30.6 seconds a play, so the offense itself should keep feeding him. Our number puts him at 291 points, WR5 overall, 34.6 points clear of the historical pool drafted around his ADP. A 25% target share worth 10.1 a game and 73.1% snap share carry that projection, and he sits at the top of a tier with one player left before a 17.4-point cliff. George Pickens is listed second in Dallas, so the target pie has a real second slice now, and that is the fact to watch.
The shoulder ended his 2024 after week 16 and he missed weeks 4 to 6 last year, so 10 to 17 games is the honest range around the 15 expected. Pick 9 is fair if the touchdowns come back. I'd draft him there and count myself lucky if a down year in the record scares anyone off.