Our read
He was the WR2 in all of fantasy last year, one spot behind Puka Nacua, and he led the entire position in receiving yards at 1,793. That is the whole draft case in one breath. Our number puts him at 310 points for 2026, about 36 points better than what receivers drafted around pick 5 have historically delivered even with the busts pooled in. He is going around pick 5 overall, and I would not blink at that.
The usage is why he holds up. His 36% target share was the best among 224 qualifying receivers, up from 24% the year before, and he played 78% of snaps while drawing 42% of the team's air yards. He cleared 15 points in 14 of 17 weeks and beat the position's weekly median 16 times. The one soft spot: only 10% of his touches came inside the red zone, WR125 among qualifiers, and his average target traveled just 11.2 yards, WR112. He scores on volume and yardage, not touchdowns, so a regression week can look ugly even when the target count holds.
Availability is not a worry on paper, he has played all 17 games in three straight seasons, and our model still only expects 15 with a range down to 9. There is a new play caller in Brian Fleury, which is worth watching in week 1 more than anything else. Draft him at his ADP, and if someone lets him slide to the back of the first, that is a steal.