Our read
He did not play 15 of 17 weeks last season, and that is the whole problem. Two games, 17 total points, first appearance in week 17. The sheet says none of those missed weeks were injury, they were healthy weeks the staff chose not to use him. That is a worse signal than any number here, because a coaching staff watched him in practice all year and kept picking Mack Hollins over him.
The one thing that pops is the red-zone work: 33.3% of his touches came inside the scoring area, WR9 among 224 qualifiers, on all of one touch. A 1.4x touchdown share is why our number has him losing 0.7 a game to regression, and at 36.4% of his points coming from touchdowns he is -2 a game right there. Take away the scores and there is almost nothing left, 6.7% target share, 75 receiving yards, 3 touches on the season. The crowded room costs him another 0.9 a game, and that room is real: A.J. Brown, Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas ahead of him, and he is sixth on the chart as of September 4th. He is also listed O as of the 11th, so his expected 11 games could just as easily be the 4 end of that range.
Our number puts him at 33 points, WR152, and there is no ADP on file because nobody is spending a pick on him. Do not be the first. If you are hunting a New England dart, I would rather wait until he is actually dressing over Doubs and Douglas, and even then this is a free-agency add, not a draft pick. Let him go.