Our read
Josh Oliver is a blocking tight end living in T.J. Hockenson's shadow, and his last three seasons tell you exactly what he is: 53 points, 66, then 55, never finishing better than TE37. Last year he played 12 games, averaged 4.6 points, and hit 15 points exactly once. His best week was 16.4 back in week 14. That is a spot start on your byes, not a roster piece.
The one thing working for him is scoring-range work. He turned 31.6% of his own touches into red-zone chances, TE13 in the league, with 6 red-zone touches last year. But the touchdown-heavy role costs him about 0.7 points a game by our number, because everything else is thin. His average target sits 3.4 yards downfield, TE97 among qualifying tight ends, and he held a 5.9% target share. When the ball has to travel, he is not the guy.
The games question is real too. Two straight seasons of 12 games, and the realistic range this year runs 8 to 17. He is 29.5 and entering year eight. O'Connell still runs the offense and calls the plays himself, so nothing is changing about the role, and Hockenson sits ahead of him on the depth chart as of early September.
Our number puts him at 57 points, TE59 on our board, and drafters take him around pick 361. That is late enough that he costs you nothing, but the pick does more good on a bench RB with actual upside. Let him go unless you are a Minnesota believer carrying three tight ends and a deep bench.