Our read
Dan Quinn stays, but David Blough is new as the play caller, and that's the one thing that could swing a second-year seventh-round pick who finished last year as RB33 off 184 touches. The depth chart lists him first, with Rachaad White and Kaytron Allen behind, but the usage never got fat in 2025: 38.5% snap share, a 3.0% target share, 17% of his own touches in the red zone. Seven of seventeen weeks above the position median, one 27-point week, and a worst of 1.7. That's a touchdown-or-nothing shape.
The scoring profile is the real drag. His 34.2% touchdown-points share costs him about 6.2 points a game, and only 10.6% of his touches came inside the ten, worth another 1.4. Sixty-eight receiving yards all season means he can't fall back on passing game work when the touchdowns don't come. He did see 20 touches inside the ten last year, RB21 among 147 qualifying backs, so the chances were there.
Our number has him at 105, about 9 points over backs drafted near pick 114, with most outcomes between 83 and 128. We expect him for 15 games, with a realistic range of 9 to 17 once injury risk is in. The books posted his rush yard line at 40.5, which tells you they expect a modest workload too. There's also a Q designation as of September 9, so check that before you click. Seven players sit in his tier before a 10.1-point drop. I'd let him fall past pick 114 and take him a few picks later, with White as the fallback if the new caller shifts the backfield.