Our read
The decline is real, not a one-week blip. He went from 13.31 points a game in 2024 to 8.41 last year, his target share fell from 10.8% to 8.3%, and the pass-catching piece was always what made him playable. He cleared 15 points in just 2 of 17 weeks in 2025, and he averaged negative depth of target, so those receptions aren't chunk plays. Even his 23.1-point week 5 was the exception, not the shape.
The role is the problem on top of that. He was already splitting time at 50.6% of snaps last season, and now he's listed second in Washington behind Jacory Croskey-Merritt as of week one. A 27-year-old backup running back on a 7.5-win team doesn't get to a fantasy starting number without injuries ahead of him, and you can't draft around pick 113 counting on that.
Drafters are moving the right direction and still not far enough. His ADP slid 10.6 picks in four days, from 119 to 129.6, and I'd let it keep sliding. Our number has him at 119 points, RB36, and he sits in a tier of 11 guys before a 10.1-point cliff, so there's no urgency to grab him before the drop. He also carries a Q designation into week 1, which is one more reason not to spend a real pick here. If he somehow wins the job outright or Croskey-Merritt gets hurt, you can add him off the wire. In drafts, let him go.