Our read
He's ruled out for week 1 already, and that frames everything about drafting him this summer. He played all 17 games as a rookie, so the availability question is new, and our number expects 13 of them this year with a realistic range of 7 to 17. That's the swing you're signing up for.
The role is the real hesitation. He was second among NE backs on the September depth chart behind Rhamondre Stevenson, played 45.8% of snaps last year, and got 18% of his own touches in the red zone. Our projection puts those usage factors together at roughly 7.5 points a game working against him, led by a 29.1% touchdown-points share worth -2.9 a game. When the touchdowns stop coming at last year's rate, there isn't much underneath. He cleared 15 points in only 4 of 17 weeks, and his worst was 0.5.
The good news: 12.1 points a game as a rookie, 24 touches inside the ten, RB13 in that scoring-range count, and the same coaching staff in Vrabel and McDaniels. Our number is 120 points, RB34, right in line with what backs drafted around pick 72 have produced, about 119. So the draft spot is fair, not a steal. There are 13 players in his tier before a 10.1-point cliff, so I'm not rushing. Let him come to me a few picks after his ADP and take him as a bench back with a real top-of-lineup week in him, like that 32.3 in week 11.