Our read
The depth chart is the whole story. He is listed third in Las Vegas behind Kirk Cousins and Fernando Mendoza, with a new head coach in Klint Kubiak and a new play caller who have zero history with him. Our number puts him at 52 points, QB40, and we project around 5 games with a realistic range of 0 to 13 once injuries enter it. That is not a season, that is a contingency plan.
When he did get on the field last year, it went badly. One appearance in week 18, 4.78 points, and he never cleared the position's weekly median. His points per game halved from 10.39 in 2024 to 4.78 in 2025, and even that 2024 season was 9 games of 93.5 points, QB37 territory. He has also missed real time two years running, 10 weeks to injury or a reserve list last year and 4 the year before. Las Vegas ran 33.8 seconds a play and passed on 58% of situation-neutral plays last year, and it won 3 games. The team posted a 5.5 win total, so game scripts will not rescue him either.
There is nothing to draft here. No ADP on file, a 4.9-point cliff under his tier, and a bye in week 13. He was a fourth-round pick, 135th overall back in 2023, when he actually finished QB26 among 59 with 125.8 points over 11 games, so there was once something here. Every quarterback on your waiver wire who starts week 1 is worth more than a third-stringer at 28 years old. Use the pick elsewhere and revisit him only if both QBs ahead of him get hurt.