Our read
This is a backup quarterback with a hand injury on the report as of September 9 and an expectation of about 6 games played, with a realistic range of 0 to 13 once you account for the injury risk. He is listed second in Washington behind Jayden Daniels, and Athan Kaliakmanis sits third. Our number has him at 44 points for the season, QB45 on our board, and the middle range of outcomes runs 19 to 69. That is a lot of spread for a player whose main job is to not play.
The history matters here. He played 10 of 17 games in 2025, and the season ended with him listed Out, hand, from week 17 on. In 2024 he played 3 of 17. In 2023 he played 2. So in three straight seasons he has appeared in 10, 3, and 2 games. Even when he was on the field last year he averaged 12.4 points over those 10 games, cleared 15 points just 5 times, and his best week was 23.36. That is streaming-week production, not a season you can plan around.
There is one small wrinkle: he touched the ball 26 times last year and scored 7 red-zone touches, which put him QB10 among 64 qualifying quarterbacks in that scoring-range work. If Daniels misses time, Mariota would inherit a decent situation, since Dan Quinn is back and the team won 5 games last year with a 7.5 win total posted for this one. But his bye lands week 7, and the projection does not even clear 50 points.
Do not draft him at his ADP around pick 353. In a one-quarterback league he is a week-17 handoff, nothing more. If you want a stash behind a starter with real injury questions, find one who is actually healthy.