Our read
The whole case here is games. We project 49 points for the season because we expect only 7 of them, with a realistic spread from 1 to 14 once injury risk is in. Even when he played last year, he averaged 14.4 points a game, which is fine for a spot start and nowhere near a reason to draft him. He cleared 15 points in 5 of 9 weeks in 2025, but his worst week was 0.3, and that is the kind of week that ends a matchup when he is your only option.
The role tells you why. He is listed second in SF behind Brock Purdy, and the 8 healthy weeks he did not play last season say the staff only turns to him when they have to. Inside 2025 his snap share fell from 100% in weeks 2 through 6 to 30% by weeks 10 through 16, so even his playing time was borrowed. The one real positive is the arrow on his scoring: 9.41 points a game in 2024 became 14.38 in 2025, and Kyle Shanahan calling plays keeps a floor on the quality of the offense he would run.
He is QB43 on our board, going around pick 335, and there is one player left in his tier before a 4.9-point drop. That math makes him a deep-league bench stash and nothing more. If you want the SF backup angle, take him a few picks after his ADP, not before. In a one-QB league, let him go entirely.