Our read
The usage was elite last year and the scoring mostly followed: 14.4 points a game, above the weekly median in 15 of 17, and 321 touches that ranked RB6. The snap share backs it up too, 77.6% of the snaps, RB5 among qualifying backs, and a 14.8% target share that put him RB6 as a receiver out of the backfield. His best week was a 33.5-point blowup in week 4, and the snap share actually climbed as the year went on, from 72% over the first four weeks to 86% down the stretch, so the staff kept feeding him more, not less.
He also sat first on the depth chart with only Dylan Laube behind him, so the workload is his to lose.
Here's the part that keeps him out of my top handful: just 13% of his own touches came in the red zone, RB90 among qualifying backs, and only 19 touches inside the ten. The 44 red-zone touches still ranked RB15 in raw number, so the chances were there, the conversion just wasn't. The volume is real, the easiest scoring chances are thin. A new staff in Kubiak and Janocko is a wildcard on top of that, and a 6.5 win total from the books plus a 58% pass rate in neutral situations won't hand him many easy touchdown paths. He's also just 22.8 on opening day, entering his second season after going sixth overall in 2025.
Our number has him at 214, about 20 points better than the historical run of backs drafted where he went, RB10 on our board. But ADP has sprinted from 20.8 to 17.4 in under a month, and that's ahead of where I'd spend the pick. At pick 27, take him. At 17, I'd rather wait and grab someone else.