Our read
The case starts with the scoring. Last season he ran for 74 red-zone touches and 40 inside the ten, both RB2, one spot behind Christian McCaffrey, and he scored above the weekly median in 16 of 17 games. His points per game climbed from 17.48 in 2024 to 21.19 last year, and his target share rose with it, from 8.0% to 10.4%. That is why our number sits at 236 and why he is RB6 on our board while drafters take him around pick 12, a round later than he should go.
The downside is real and it has a number. A 33.3% touchdown-points share costs him 6.2 a game when the touchdowns cool, and the red-zone and inside-ten shares each shave another 1.4 to 1.6. That is what a heavy scoring profile looks like on paper. The counter is volume: 369 touches, RB2, on an 82.4% snap share, with the same coaching staff back. He cleared 15 points in 10 of his 17 weeks, so the scoring did not ride on one spike even with that 49.6-point week 10. The 2023 season is the other shadow, a 10-game year, and our expected 15 games ranges down to 9 if injury hits.
The books posted him at 76.5 rush yards and 2.5 receptions a game, which reads like they expect the rushing role to hold. His ADP has drifted down, from 7.4 to 7.7, so nobody is rushing on him either. Six players sit in his tier before a 17.1-point drop, so waiting past pick 12 means picking from the next group. Take him at 12. If he slides a few picks after that, it is a steal.