Our read
Kansas City is why I want him. He left an offense that ranked him RB39 in snap share and RB41 in target share for one where Andy Reid calls the plays himself and Walker is listed first among the backs. The receiving numbers bottomed out last year, 8.0% target share down from 13.8% the year before, and Reid's passing game is the obvious place for that to come back. The books posted him at 2.5 receptions and 16.5 receiving yards, so they expect a role too. Their 10.5 win total on this team says the whole situation should be livelier than the 6-win Seattle year he is leaving.
The efficiency actually improved while the counting stats fell. Yards per touch rose from 4.4 to 5.2 and he beat the weekly median in 13 of 17 games, yet points per game dropped from 16.47 to 11.29. That's a usage problem, not a talent problem, and the change of scenery is aimed straight at it. He still cleared 37 red-zone touches last year, RB25 among 147, so the scoring-role bones are already there. Our number puts him at 216 points, RB9, about 20 points above what backs drafted around pick 25 have historically returned with the busts pooled in.
The downside is real: we expect 14 games but the range runs down to 9, and his 2024 season ended on an ankle after week 16. Even so, at ADP 25.4 he's going roughly a round later than he finished last year's board at RB22, with an offensive upgrade on top. Draft him.