Our read
The 2025 season is the whole case: 415 points, RB1 among 147 qualifying backs, above the weekly median in all 17 games, 904 receiving yards and 100 red-zone touches, both best at the position. He was on the field for 83.1% of snaps and held a 23.5% target share, and Shanahan is still the one calling the plays. That usage is why our number sits at 240 and makes him RB4 on our board even at 30 years old in his tenth season.
The downside is real and you should say it out loud before you draft him. Our four factors all pull him down, led by a 22.7% red-zone touch share worth -6.4 a game and a 24.6% touchdown-points share worth -4.5. And the availability range runs 9 to 17 games. His 2024 lasted four games. He played 16 of 17 in 2023 and all 17 last year, so the good seasons are recent, but that range is what keeps the low tail down there at 158.
Drafters have moved him up, ADP climbing from 6.3 to 4.7 in mid-September, and historical seasons at this draft spot come in around 234 with the busts pooled in, so our number is only about 6 points above it. That tells you the season he already put up is largely baked in. I would still take him at pick 10. The tier holds 8 players before a 17-point drop, and nobody else in that stretch paired an RB1 season with his receiving role.