Our read
Sixteen for sixteen. That's the fact that decides Achane's case: he beat the position's weekly median in every game he played last season, 20.1 points a game on his way to RB5 among 147 qualifying backs. He cleared 15 points in 14 of those 16 weeks and his worst was 12.8. When he plays, he returns draft capital every single week, which almost nobody at this ADP can claim.
The role keeps widening. His target share jumped from 15.3% in 2024 to 19.4% in 2025, third among running backs and one spot behind Bijan Robinson, with 481 receiving yards that ranked RB5. The passing game is where his edge lives, and the books posted his receptions line at 4.5 for a reason. The one thing he doesn't give you is goal-line work: 13.3% red-zone share of his own touches ranked RB89, and his 43 red-zone touches were only RB16. He scores through space, not through the pile.
So the downside is games, and the sheet says so plainly: our number assumes 14, with a realistic range of 9 to 17, and it already lists him on IR as of October 11. The low tail of his outcomes comes from seasons cut short by injury, and 2023's 11-game year shows what that looks like. He's also playing for a new play caller in Bobby Slowik under a first-year head coach, which cuts both ways. Our number puts him at 245 points, RB3 on our board, about 20 points above what backs drafted at his ADP have historically returned. I'd take him a round earlier than his 21.2 ADP and accept the injury risk, because the weekly hit rate pays for the missed weeks.