Our read
The number that should drive your pick here is the tier. We have nine players left in his tier before a 16.8-point cliff, and we put Olave at 274 points, WR6 on our board. Drafters take him around pick 18, and WR6 going at 18 is a round later than he should. Our number is +28.3 over the history of receivers drafted where he's going, and that history already pools in the busts and injuries. He doesn't need to beat his own 2025 to win you the pick.
The usage is what makes me trust it. 29% target share, 84% of the snaps, and half the team's air yards at 49.7%. That air-yards number is the interesting one, because his average depth of target was only 11.8 yards, WR99. He's not a pure deep threat, he's just the first read on everything that travels. Kellen Moore and Doug Nussmeier are back running the same offense that took his target share from 18.8% to 29.4% in one year. There's no new-system risk here.
The honest worry is the games column. Our 15-game expectation comes with a range of 9 to 17, and the record explains why: 2024 ended after week 9 with a concussion, 2025 ended after week 17 with an illness. The low tail in our full range is from seasons cut short like that. He still cleared 15 points in 8 of 16 weeks last year and beat the position's weekly median all 16 times. Take him at 18, don't reach into the teens, and let him fall if the room sleeps.