Our read
He has played 8 and 4 games in the last two seasons. Suspension cost him the first six weeks of 2025, a concussion took him out for the year after week 15, and in 2024 he made four appearances before landing on the reserve list. That's the whole case against him, and it's a real one. But when he was on the field last year, he was above the weekly median in all 8 games he played, at 18.5 points a night.
The role justifies it. Reid calls the plays and kept him, and he ran 73.2% of the snaps with a 29% target share, which our number credits at over 8 points a game combined. Inside the ten he had 17 touches, third among all receivers, one behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. He's listed first among KC wideouts with Worthy behind him. The books have posted 60.5 receiving yards and 5.5 receptions on him this season, with the team at a 10.5 win total. His ADP has barely moved, up 0.2 picks since early September. The one soft spot in the usage: a 24.3% touchdown share that our model docks him for, and an average depth of target of 4.3 yards, near the bottom of the league, so he needs the red-zone work to keep coming.
Our number puts him at 253 points, WR12, which is about 14 points better than receivers drafted around pick 26 historically. Three players sit in his tier before a drop of nearly 17 points. Take him at his ADP and just accept that 14 expected games might mean 11 real ones.