Our read
The case starts with the target share. A 24.6% cut of Houston's throws is WR18 territory, and our projection leans on it staying there: 25% targets is worth 10.1 points a game to us, net of the factors around it. Add a 33.4% air-yards share and a 76.9% snap share, and he's getting first-receiver volume in an offense the books posted a 9.5 win total on. Our number lands at 253 points, WR11 on our board.
Drafters have him around pick 16, a round earlier than last September and still too patient. WRs taken at that spot have historically scored about 220 with busts and injuries pooled in. We have him 32.7 points clear of that. There are four receivers left in his tier before a 16.8-point cliff, so waiting for someone behind him is betting against the gap.
The real knock is last season's dip: 17.55 points a game in 2024 fell to 14.95 in 2025, and his red-zone share of his own touches was only 15.6%, WR64. Nineteen red-zone touches and 10 inside the ten say the team still funneled him scoring chances, so the dip reads more like a down year than a broken role. He cleared 15 points in 7 of 15 weeks and beat the position's median in 14 of them.
Games are the other guardrail: he's played 12, 15 and 15 the last three years, so 12 is in his history. I'd take him a round earlier than his ADP and not lose sleep over the dip.