Our read
The volume is not a guess. He ran an 86.6% snap share and pulled a 29% target share last season, worth +10.1 and +8 a game in our model, and he turned it into 1,211 yards and a WR7 finish. Fifteen of seventeen weeks he cleared the position's median. That's what you're drafting, a locked-in WR1 usage profile on a team the books expect to win 11.5 games.
What he can't give you is touchdowns. His red-zone share of touches was 9.4%, WR135 among qualifying receivers, with only 12 red-zone touches and 5 inside the ten. His average depth of target sat at 10.2 yards, WR127, so he's stacking catches and yards, not ending drives. That's why a 14.3-point average is his shape rather than spike weeks, and why his best week was a 29.8 back in week 18. It also caps him short of the very top of the position even in a good year, and there's only two players left in his tier before a 16.8-point cliff, so the profile has to hold.
Two other things to weigh. The playbook is new, Jesse Minter as head coach and Declan Doyle calling plays, so the 2025 usage isn't guaranteed to carry over. And he carries a Q designation as of October 10, though the injury log is otherwise clean, three straight seasons at 16 or 17 games. We project him for 252 points, about 37 above the historical group at his draft slot, with a middle range of 216 to 288. Drafters are taking him around pick 30, and our number puts him a round later than he should go. Take him there. If the Q tag scares your league and he slides several picks past that, it's a steal.