Our read
Start with the field role, because that part is settled. He played 84.3% of snaps and caught 24% of the targets last season, and he stood up for all 17 games, so the 2024 dip to 13 played is the outlier, not the pattern. Our number puts him at 248 points, WR14 on our board, and that is about 35 points better than what receivers drafted around pick 24 have actually delivered, busts included. The usage earns that projection.
The problem is where the scoring comes from. His red-zone share of his own touches was 9.7%, WR131, with only 3 touches inside the ten all year, and the average target sat at 12 yards downfield. He is a volume and yardage receiver, and the crowded target room costs him about 0.9 a game. His points per game also slid from 15.34 in 2024 to 11.87 last season, and his target share dropped from 28.5% to 24.4%, so the trend is not nothing. The yardage part was real, 1008 receiving yards, WR16 among 228 qualifiers, and he beat the position's weekly median in 13 of 17 games, so he is paying his salary most weeks.
Drafters have noticed, his ADP climbed from 29.3 to 26.9 over two weeks, but I am not chasing him at 24. There is one player left in his tier before a 16.8-point drop, so if he slips past you, wait a round and take the next guy rather than pay the early pick for a receiver who scores through volume alone.