Our read
The 2025 season is the whole argument. Twelve games, 200 points, WR22, after a 280-point, WR4 year in 2024. Four weeks lost to injury from weeks 12 to 15, and a healthy week he did not play. But he cleared 15 points in half his weeks and beat the position's median in 11 of 12, so the per-week production never dipped. The total collapsed because he missed a month, not because the role did.
And the role is untouched. He's listed first among Atlanta's receivers with Dotson, Zaccheaus and Branch behind him, he played 90% of snaps, and he ate 30% of the targets and 30% of the air yards. Our number has him at 268 points, WR9 overall, about 28 points better than what receivers drafted around pick 13 have historically given back, busts and injuries pooled in.
Two things hold him back from the top five. His red-zone share of touches was just 13.4%, WR86, and his average depth of target was 10.9 yards, WR122, so last year's scoring leaned on week 9's 38.8 more than steady touchdowns. But he took 8 touches inside the ten, WR9 among 225, so the chances near the goal line were there. The books posted his receiving line at 64.5 yards and 5.5 catches, and their win total for Atlanta sits at 7.5. Stefanski and Rees are both new, and nobody knows yet what that offense looks like. He's one of six players left in his tier before a 16.8-point cliff, so if you miss the run, the drop is real. At pick 13 I'd draft him. A round earlier, I'd want to see the new offense first.